The proposed Republican legislative map for the House of Representatives promises an active 2012 election season. Surprisingly, there are 8 districts in which there is no incumbent member currently residing. Three districts will potentially pit 3 Republican incumbents against one another, while three districts pit fellow Democratic legislators against one another. In four districts, there is a Republican incumbent pitted against a Democratic incumbent. Cam Savage gives a good rundown of the races at Capitol & Washington blog, which shows the following potential match-ups:
Republican v. Republican
Jeff Espich v. Dan Leonard
Tom Knollman v. Jud McMillan
Rich McClain v. Dan Lehe
Democrat v. Democrat
Chet Dobis v. Vernon Smith
Jeb Bardon v. Vanessa Summers
Ed Delaney v. Greg Porter v. John Day
Republican v. Democrat
Tom Dermody (R) v. Nancy Dembowski (D)
Bruce Borders (R) v. Kreg Battles (D)
Ralph Foley (R) v. Matt Pierce (D)
Bob Cherry (R) v. Scott Reske (D)
Savage notes there is some talk Sen. Bev Gard may choose to retire, and Cherry may opt to run for her open Senate seat. That could set up a rematch between Reske and Republican Kyle Hupfer.
Democrats are already crying foul over the drawing of this map, but there was no way they weren't going to come out big losers simply by virtue of changing demographics. Brian Howey noted the 40 House seats held by Democrats gained a combined 4,681 people during the census compared to a gain of more than 398,000 for the 60 Republican districts. Thirty districts lost population during the census period, 21 of which were held by Democrats. It looks like even under the worst case scenario, the Republicans would lose no more than 5 seats, and they could well maintain their current 60-40 majority, even adding one or two to their numbers.
The Senate GOP-drawn map can be viewed here. I found it interesting that Sen. Brent Waltz' district 36 appears to be extended into the downtown area of Indianapolis, taking in my neighborhood. If someone knows where there are Marion County-only maps with greater detail, I would appreciate it. It's kind of hard to decipher exactly where the boundaries are because of the condensed size of the districts in Marion County. It's very odd that Bev Gard's Hancock County district has been drawn to extend into Marion County all the way to Center Township.
